Life-span Calculation

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Foundation for Infinite Survival, Inc.

(science and philosophy in a unified system of thought)

Life-Extension & Control of Ageing Program

Berkeley, California, USA
http://www.fis.org

THE LIFE-EXPECTANCY CALCULATION(c)

One of the best ways to gain an understanding of life-extension science is to see how it might pertain to you, and that can be done by making an estimate of your own, personal, life-expectancy. Print this (it is about 10 pages) and do the calculations by hand. For a shortened calculation which will give an idea about personal life-expectancy without any life-extension technology, David Garrison, has created an automated calculation.

To summarize the basic principles, the quality and length of your survival depends on multiple factors: 1) the genetics of your species, 2) the genetics of your familial strain, 3) your social and ecological environments, 4) your personal life-style and behaviour, and 5) your access to certain medical technologies. Further, and most important, the quality and length of your survival will depend on progress in certain areas of basic research in the life-extension sciences. This will be a dynamic calculation, and we will combine all aspects.

SCENARIO 1 - YOUR ACTUARIAL LIFE-EXPECTANCY & YEARS REMAINING

Because you are from a particular species called human, you conform to the general life-span pattern which is characteristic of the genetics of that species. In addition, because you live within a particular social and environmental context, your species life-span is allowed to express itself according to varying degrees of its full potential. Thus, the first figure to be used in calculating your life-span is the actuarial or average life-span for humans, living within your particular cultural and environmental setting.

What follows are two tables (one for males and the other for females, taken from 1997 data for the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics) in which the average life-expectancies are listed for different age categories. The tables are standard actuarial calculations, and the figures apply to an average industrialized civilization. We will use this figure as a starting point. Go to your current age in the table and note the number of years of your life-expectancy according to your sex. You may round the fractions of so desired.

LIFE-EXPECTANCY TABLE - Males

Age Life span Age Life span Age Life span Age Life span

20 75.6 41 77.2 62 80.7 83 89.6

21 75.7 42 77.3 63 81.0 84 90.2

22 75.8 43 77.4 64 81.3 85 90.8

23 75.9 44 77.5 65 81.6 86 91.5

24 75.9 45 77.7 66 81.9 87 92.2

25 76.0 46 77.8 67 82.2 88 92.8

26 76.1 47 77.9 68 82.6 89 93.6

27 76.2 48 78.0 69 82.9 90 94.3

28 76.2 49 78.2 70 83.3 91 95.0

29 76.3 50 78.3 71 83.7 92 95.8

30 76.4 51 78.4 72 84.1 93 96.6

31 76.4 52 78.6 73 84.5 94 97.4

32 76.5 53 78.8 74 85.0 95 98.2

33 76.6 54 78.9 75 85.4 96 99.0

34 76.7 55 79.1 76 85.9 97 99.9

35 76.7 56 79.3 77 86.4 98 100.7

36 76.8 57 79.5 78 86.9 99 101.6

37 76.9 58 79.7 79 87.4 100 102.5

38 77.0 59 79.7 80 87.9 100+ 102.4

39 77.1 60 80.2 81 88.5

40 77.1 61 80.4 82 89.0

LIFE-EXPECTANCY TABLE - Females

Age Life span Age Life span Age Life span Age Life span

20 81.2 41 81.9 62 84.3 83 91.0

21 81.2 42 82.0 63 84.5 84 91.5

22 81.2 43 82.1 64 84.7 85 92.1

23 81.3 44 82.1 65 84.9 86 92.6

24 81.3 45 82.2 66 85.2 87 93.2

25 81.3 46 82.3 67 85.4 88 93.8

26 81.4 47 82.4 68 85.7 89 94.4

27 81.4 48 82.4 69 85.9 90 95.0

28 81.4 49 82.4 70 86.2 91 95.7

29 81.4 50 82.6 71 86.5 92 96.4

30 81.5 51 82.7 72 86.8 93 97.1

31 81.5 52 82.8 73 87.1 94 97.8

32 81.5 53 82.9 74 87.4 95 98.6

33 81.6 54 83.0 75 87.8 96 99.4

34 81.6 55 83.2 76 88.1 97 100.1

35 81.7 56 83.3 77 88.5 98 101.0

36 81.7 57 83.4 78 88.9 99 101.8

37 81.7 58 83.6 79 89.3 100 102.6

38 81.8 59 83.7 80 89.7 100+ 102.5

39 81.8 60 83.9 81 90.1

40 81.9 61 84.1 82 90.6

Record your ACTUARIAL LIFE-EXPECTANCY here: (1a) _____

Minus your present age: (1b)-_____

Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU. (1c)=_____

The above actuarial life-expectancy is a general statistical calculation. More precisely, your personal life-expectancy is also a function of other factors such as: your particular genetics, your social setting, your personal environment, and certain behavioural factors. In addition, the consequences of participating in the Life-Extension Program and the prospective benefits from progress in specific areas of research will all have a tangible effect on your vitality and longevity. Next, we will consider these aspects.

SCENARIO 2 - THE EFFECTS OF GENETICS, SOCIAL FACTORS, BEHAVIOUR, AND ENVIRONMENT ON YOUR LIFE-EXPECTANCY.

The following genetic, social, behavioural, and environmental factors are known to relate to your health, to your proneness to specific diseases, and to the length of your life-span. (This aspect of the calculation is taken from Sacher GA 1997; Life Table Modification and Life Prolongation. In: Handbook of The Biology of Aging; [Eds.Finch CE and Hayflick L]; Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1997, pg.582-638.) In answering the questions below, make your notations as you read the material. At the end of this section, you will add and subtract the various factors and make an adjustment to your life-expectancy and number of years remaining. If you cannot answer a particular question, disregard it.

GENETIC FACTORS:

For each grandparent or parent who died of heart attack or stroke before age 50, subtract 2 years; and for any who died from those diseases between the ages of 51-60, subtract 1. - _____

If any of your predecessors had diabetes, thyroid disorders, or cancer and you are not taking special precautions as advised by a doctor, then subtract 1 year for each disorder. - _____

SOCIAL AND CULTURAL FACTORS:

If you live in an average industrialized society, make no change. If you live in an advanced technological society, add 2 years to your life-span. + _____

If you live in an emerging industrial society, subtract 5 years. - _____

If you graduated from college, add 1 year. + _____

If you income is less than $12,000, subtract 2 years. - _____

PERSONAL BEHAVIOURAL FACTORS:

If most of your life you have maintained optimal body weight (i.e., you are presently and have been for some time neither over-weight nor under-weight by more than about 5 lbs, add 5 years to your life-expectancy. +_____

If you are between 12 - 14 lbs. underweight, subtract 1 year; if 15 or more lbs. underweight, subtract 2 years. -_____

If you are overweight, subtract 1 year for every 10 pounds over your ideal weight. -_____

If you skip meals frequently, if you do not regularly eat two or three meals per day (including breakfast), and if you eat hurriedly, then subtract 1 year. -_____

Subtract 1 year for each of the following types of food which you eat routinely:

fast foods, -_____

refined sugar, -_____

fatty foods, -_____

salty foods. -_____

If you eat at least one meal a day containing foods from the basic food groups, add 2 years. +_____

If you take a multiple vitamin and mineral daily or extra vitamin A, C, or E, add 1 year. +_____

If you eat a high-fiber food daily, add 1 year. +_____

If you are a moderate drinker of alcohol (i.e. 1 glass of wine or 1 cocktail per day) add 1 year. +_____

If you drink alcohol more than 2 per day, subtract 2 years for every 2 drinks beyond that. -_____

If you frequently sleep fewer than 5 hours or more than 9 hours, subtract 2 years. -_____

If you smoke more than 40 cigarettes per day, subtract 8 years. -_____

If 20-40 cigarettes per day, subtract 6 years. -_____

If 10-20 cigarettes per day, subtract 3 years. -_____

If you do not smoke but live or work with smokers, subtract 2 year. -_____

If you exercise for half an hour or more at least three times per week, add 2 years (note: only the more strenuous, aerobically sustained, exercising counts such as swimming, hiking, racket ball, jogging, etc.). +_____

If you are sedentary in work and outside of work, subtract 2 years. -_____

If you lead a mentally active life, add 1 year. +_____

If you are often bored and depressed, subtract 1 year. -_____

If you are basically happy, add 1 year. +_____

If you are under chronic emotional stress and anxiety, subtract 2 years. -_____

If you are calm and easy-going, add 1 year. +_____

If you are highly aggressive, competitive, or easily irritated, subtract 1 year. -_____

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS:

If you live in a polluted environment, subtract 1 year. -_____

If you work in a polluted environment, subtract 3 years. -_____

PERSONAL BIO-MEDICAL FACTORS:

If your blood pressure is 130/90, subtract 1; if it is 140/90, subtract 3; and if it is 150/100 or greater subtract 5. -_____

If you take therapeutic drugs on a prolonged basis which have known side-effects, subtract 2 years. -_____

If your blood cholesterol is 220 or more, subtract 1 year. -_____

If your hdl cholesterol is low, subtract 1 year. -_____

If you frequently take drugs for recreation purposes, subtract 2. -_____

If you have annual or semi-annual comprehensive examinations for preventive medicine, add 2. +_____

SUMMARIZE THE PREVIOUS FIGURES HERE:

The total years added (2a)+_____

The total years subtracted (2b)- _____

Next, in order to establish the effects of those personal genetic, social, behavioural, and environmental factors on your life-expectancy, complete the following calculation.

YOUR ADJUSTED LIFE-EXPECTANCY & NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING.

Your ACTUARIAL LIFE-EXPECTANCY from Scenario 1 (1a) _____

Plus the total additions from Scenario 2 (above) (2a)+_____

Minus the subtractions from Scenario 2 (above) (2b)- _____

Equals your ADJUSTED LIFE-EXPECTANCY (2c)=_____

Minus your present age: (1b)- _____

Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU. (2d)=_____

SCENARIO 3 - THE LIFE-EXTENSION & CONTROL OF AGEING PROGRAM - PHASE I

Assume that you participate in the Life-Extension Program and that, with reasonable diligence, you do the following within a period of about 3 years:

a) have the routine comprehensive testing at appropriate intervals to identify risk factors and track general health status; and

b) implement the various categories of Phase I Life-Extension Applications (i.e., the procedures in Nutrition, Physical Conditioning, Toxicology, Psychological Factors, and Disease Prevention).

Again, we will assume that it takes a person a good 3 years to implement the basic Phase I applications and, as a consequence of such practice, you are able to normalize or compensate for all of the negative factors in the previous calculation in Scenario 2. (The optimization of personal behaviour, environment, social factors and the compensation for any particular genetic predispositions to disease are the main objectives of Phase I Applications.)

Now, make a modification in your life-expectancy by doing the following calculation. From the last adjusted life-expectancy above (2c), take the total number of years which were subtracted from your life-expectancy, and add those years back to your adjusted life-expectancy.

Your ADJUSTED LIFE-EXPECTANCY from Scenario 2 (2c) _____

Plus the TOTAL SUBTRACTIONS from Scenario 2 (2b)+_____

Equals your PHASE I LIFE-EXPECTANCY: (3a)=_____

Minus 3 years for implementation: (3b)-__3__

Minus your present age (1b)- _____

equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU. (3c)=_____

Here, we have derived an estimate of a life-expectancy which is reasonably possible with the practices and procedures that are currently available. We believe that this estimate is conservative and that more actually can be achieved in most people. It will require some training, a moderate amount of self-discipline, and an investment of some time and money. However, all of those should be within the reach of most people.

SCENARIOS 4-8 - THE BENEFITS FROM EXPECTED PROGRESS IN LIFE-EXTENSION SCIENCE.

From this point, we will be making stochastic estimates or reasonable conjectures about progress which is likely to occur.

SCENARIO 4 -WITHIN THE NEXT 5 YEARS.

Concurrently with the above Phase I applications, it is reasonable to assume that, within the next 5 years, some progress will have occurred in the life-extension sciences. For example, the technology in Curative Medicine and Disease Prevention by the early detection of disorders and early therapeutic intervention will have improved considerably; and the other Phase I Applications in Nutrition, Exercise, Toxicology, and Stress Management will also have become more refined and more integrated into your life-style. Also, you start taking an anti-inflammatory drug such as aspirin which dramatically lowers the incidence of cancer and heart attack as well as dampening some of the negative side-effects of immune responses. Further, and most important, let us assume that, during this period, you will have been able to ease into a calorically restricted diet, averaging about 1,600 calories per day. Caloric restriction profoundly increases maximum life-span in virtually all experimental models; and there is enough empirical evidence that, if done properly according to each individual's situation, it will work for humans. Caloric restriction is the only technique which, at this time, slows biological ageing. (There is a plausible argument that caloric restriction does not really slow ageing, per se, but rather prevents the life-shortening, chronic diseases such as cancers, atherosclerosis, kidney failure, arthritis, etc. thus allowing the organism to live out its full life-span potential while, at the same time, still ageing. Either way, the health benefits of this technique are profound; and it must become a component in everyone's life-extension program.)

The net result of improvements in Phase I modalities and caloric restriction will have the effect of adding 15 years your life-expectancy. Make the modifications below.

Your PHASE I LIFE-EXPECTANCY from Scenario 3 (3a) _____

Plus 15 years from Scenario #4 (4a)+__15_

Equals your SCENARIO #4 LIFE-EXPECTANCY: (4b)=_____

Minus 5 years for implementation: (4c)-__5__

Minus your present age (1b)-_____

Equals NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU IN 5 YEARS FROM NOW. (4d)=_____

Calculate to what year you will be surviving:

The present year _____

Plus the number of years remaining (4d) _____

Equals, surviving to the year _____

This, Scenario #4, is very feasible. This is no science fiction. It simply organizes and builds into one's routine life-style procedures which exist today.

SCENARIO 5 - WITHIN THE NEXT 10 YEARS.

Next, concurrently with the above, assume that, in 10 years from the present, progress continues. The previous procedures become more refined. Also, individual hormonal optimization might be routine and provide some marginal health benefits. The chronic diseases will be more preventable and treatable; and individualized nutrition will have developed into a true science. Further, some of the life-extension and gerontological research which began in the 1950's and 1960's will start to surface in the form of applied therapies. For example, a truly effective anti-oxidant compound will have been certified and be available for use, and there will be effective pharmacological management of some aspects of mental ageing. Also, there will be some drugs to protect non-renewable proteins. As a result of that progress, your vitality will be improved such that another 15 years could be added to your life-expectancy. Modify your calculations accordingly:

Your SCENARIO 4 LIFE-EXPECTANCY: (4b)=_____

Plus 15 years from Scenario 5 (5a)+__15_

Equals SCENARIO 5 LIFE-EXPECTANCY: (5b)=_____

Minus 10 years for implementation: (5c)-__10_

Minus your present age (1b)-_____

Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU IN 10 YEARS FROM NOW. (5d)=_____

SCENARIO #6 - WITHIN THE NEXT 20 YEARS.

As time progresses, the involvement in and support of ageing research will have grown, and the systematic mapping of the basic mechanisms of regeneration will have yielded major progress. The stage is set for major breakthroughs. Assume that, over the next 20 years, new developments continue. All of the previous techniques continue to become more refined and more effective, yielding additional maintenance of vitality. Also, there will be available rudimentary methods for regeneration, such as: methods to stimulate the synthesis of certain types of proteins which degrade with time. Perhaps, as some investigators believe, it is found that the ageing of certain systems is caused by inhibiting hormones; and agents are developed which block those inhibiting hormones. Also, it may be discovered that there are, in fact, defects in receptor sites to thyroid or insulin and that those defects can be corrected, thus returning general metabolism back to a more optimal state. Those are, of course, speculative; but it is highly probable that within the next 20 years, the ageing processes will be under some control. Such progress will yield additional increments in vitality and extensions in life-expectancy, gaining perhaps another 20 year on life-expectancy. Modify your projections accordingly:

Your SCENARIO 5 LIFE-EXPECTANCY: (5b)=_____

Plus 20 years from Scenario 6 (6a)+__20_

Equals SCENARIO 6 LIFE-EXPECTANCY: (6b)=_____

Minus 20 years for implementation: (6c)-__20_

Minus your present age (1b)-_____

Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU IN 20 YEARS FROM NOW. (6d)=_____

By now, the attention of most people starts to waft away. You get the general idea; and besides, the cognitive faculty of mind does not seem to have, normally, the capacity to grasp projections that are much beyond a 5 or 10 year point of future reference. However, to envision where some of the more basic research is going, proceed with the next two scenarios.

SCENARIO #7 - WITHIN THE NEXT 30 YEARS.

In 30 years from now, the life-extension and control of ageing sciences will have developed even further, and we will be on the way to achieving the final breakthroughs. In addition to continued refinements of those areas which have been mentioned previously, we will be able to do more basic biological regeneration. Such techniques as monoclonal antibody production and clonal restoration of stem cells will allow us to augment and/or restore the immune system, thus avoiding a host of associated diseases and biological damage. There will be agents to stabilize the repair of the master genetic molecule, DNA, and to regenerate mitochondria. Another area might be enzymes which eliminate much of the intra-cellular debris (i.e., lipofuscin) and cross-linked proteins which accumulates during normal metabolic processes. Such breakthroughs will significantly stabilize and regenerate vitality and add about 30 additional years to one's life-expectancy.

Your SCENARIO LIFE-EXPECTANCY: (6b)=_____

Plus 30 years from Scenario 7 (7a)+__30_

Equals SCENARIO 7 LIFE-EXPECTANCY: (7b)=_____

Minus 30 years for implementation: (7c)-__30_

Minus your present age (1b)-_____

Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU IN 30 YEARS FROM NOW. (7D)=_____

SCENARIO #8 - WITHIN THE NEXT 40 YEARS.

Finally, within 40 years, there will be agents that enable the controlled reactivation of cell division (i.e., eumitosis) in those tissues which are depleted. Once that type of technology is accomplished, complete biological regeneration will, most likely, be possible; and we will have the ability to reverse and control ageing and maintain optimal vitality indefinitely through time. For all practical purposes, that will be tantamount to scientific "immortality"; and that is the inevitable thrust of medicine and the ultimate goal of the life-extension sciences. Once this level of technology is reached, then you would be a non-ageing human, functioning in a physical condition of optimal vitality, and your potential would be open-ended. From that point on, only periodic regeneration would be required to biologically maintain you at that level of optimal vitality; and your life-expectancy would be potentially indefinite.

Keep in mind that the last scenarios are speculative and depend on progress in the biological sciences. It could be argued that those predictions are overly optimistic; but it could be argued, with equal validity, that they are too conservative (e.g., we have not even begun to address the prospects of genetic engineering and euthenics). The history of modern science demonstrates very clearly that virtually any problem can be solved and any barrier overcome and that breakthroughs frequently happen much sooner that most people think, including the experts. The rate limiting factor on our progress is mostly the amount and manner of applied resources. While the amount of available resources is always a problem, equally significant are the barriers which are self-imposed by the limits of our aspiration and imagination.

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

Life-extension science, far more than any previous science, will dramatically impact virtually every aspect of personal, social, and environmental existence. Because of the far-reaching consequences, we choose to proceed in this field within an appropriate philosophical context - thus, the usage of the idea of infinite survival and the system of mind which evolves therefrom.

The human condition has radically changed in the 20th Century, and essentially all of that change has been caused by new scientific and technological developments. The power and magnitude of science has been so immense and has evolved so rapidly that our physical conditions have out-stripped our value systems and conceptual frameworks. We find ourselves without a suitable philosophy with which to make sense out of where we are and where we are going. None of the traditional philosophies have been able to successfully comprehend the developments; and, consequently, most of this period has been, and still continues to be, a very rough and tumble type of progress, with humanity (and, indeed, the planet) teetering on literal devastation. Most of the developments thus far have been in the area of external reality. In other words, progress in agricultural technology, industrialism, the internal combustion engine, electricity, nuclear energy, computers, etc. are oriented toward controlling and managing external circumstances. However, with bio-technology, in general, and life-extension science, in particular, the shift is toward the control and modification of our own nature. It does not take much reflection to see that we today, and all previous generations, have ordered our circumstances and visions around the inevitability of death and a relatively short, functional life-span. Even a modest change in that (e.g., Scenarios 3 and 4 above would yield an increment of some 10-20 years on life-expectancy) will force the existing psychological, social, and environmental gestalt to radically reorganize itself. In order to deal effectively with the dramatic changes ahead of us and to take advantage of the transition, a new philosophy is critically important; and we seek to open this kind of dialog in conjunction with the pursuit of life-extension science.

_ footnotes _

(c) Copyright. This monograph is copyrighted by The Foundation for Infinite Survival, Inc. It may be reproduced and distributed by anyone under the following conditions: 1) the text and graphics may not be changed in any way; and 2) any fee charged for distribution must not exceed $3.00. The Foundation retains the right to retract or change these stipulations at any time, effective retroactively.

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SCENARIO 1 - YOUR ACTUARIAL LIFE-EXPECTANCY & YEARS REMAINING
Because you are from a particular species called human, you conform to the general life-span pattern which is characteristic of the genetics of that species. In addition, because you live within a particular social and environmental context, your species life-span is allowed to express itself according to varying degrees of its full potential. Thus, the first figure to be used in calculating your life-span is the actuarial or average life-span for humans, living within your particular cultural and environmental setting. What follows are two tables (one for males and the other for females, taken from 1997 data for the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics) in which the average life-expectancies are listed for different age categories. The tables are standard actuarial calculations, and the figures apply to an average industrialized civilization. We will use this figure as a starting point. Go to your current age in the table and note the number of years of your life-expectancy according to your sex. You may round the fractions of so desired.
LIFE-EXPECTANCY TABLE - Males
Age	Life span	Age	Life span	Age	Life span	Age	Life span
20	75.6	41	77.2	62	80.7	83	89.6
21	75.7	42	77.3	63	81.0	84	90.2
22	75.8	43	77.4	64	81.3	85	90.8
23	75.9	44	77.5	65	81.6	86	91.5
24	75.9	45	77.7	66	81.9	87	92.2
25	76.0	46	77.8	67	82.2	88	92.8
26	76.1	47	77.9	68	82.6	89	93.6
27	76.2	48	78.0	69	82.9	90	94.3
28	76.2	49	78.2	70	83.3	91	95.0
29	76.3	50	78.3	71	83.7	92	95.8
30	76.4	51	78.4	72	84.1	93	96.6
31	76.4	52	78.6	73	84.5	94	97.4
32	76.5	53	78.8	74	85.0	95	98.2
33	76.6	54	78.9	75	85.4	96	99.0
34	76.7	55	79.1	76	85.9	97	99.9
35	76.7	56	79.3	77	86.4	98	100.7
36	76.8	57	79.5	78	86.9	99	101.6
37	76.9	58	79.7	79	87.4	100	102.5
38	77.0	59	79.7	80	87.9	100+	102.4
39	77.1	60	80.2	81	88.5
40	77.1	61	80.4	82	89.0

LIFE-EXPECTANCY TABLE - Females
Age	Life span	Age	Life span	Age	Life span	Age	Life span
20	81.2	41	81.9	62	84.3	83	91.0
21	81.2	42	82.0	63	84.5	84	91.5
22	81.2	43	82.1	64	84.7	85	92.1
23	81.3	44	82.1	65	84.9	86	92.6
24	81.3	45	82.2	66	85.2	87	93.2
25	81.3	46	82.3	67	85.4	88	93.8
26	81.4	47	82.4	68	85.7	89	94.4
27	81.4	48	82.4	69	85.9	90	95.0
28	81.4	49	82.4	70	86.2	91	95.7
29	81.4	50	82.6	71	86.5	92	96.4
30	81.5	51	82.7	72	86.8	93	97.1
31	81.5	52	82.8	73	87.1	94	97.8
32	81.5	53	82.9	74	87.4	95	98.6
33	81.6	54	83.0	75	87.8	96	99.4
34	81.6	55	83.2	76	88.1	97	100.1
35	81.7	56	83.3	77	88.5	98	101.0
36	81.7	57	83.4	78	88.9	99	101.8
37	81.7	58	83.6	79	89.3	100	102.6
38	81.8	59	83.7	80	89.7	100+	102.5
39	81.8	60	83.9	81	90.1
40	81.9	61	84.1	82	90.6

Record your ACTUARIAL LIFE-EXPECTANCY here:								(1a) _____
Minus your present age:								(1b)-_____
Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU.								(1c)=_____
The above actuarial life-expectancy is a general statistical calculation. More precisely, your personal life-expectancy is also a function of other factors such as: your particular genetics, your social setting, your personal environment, and certain behavioural factors. In addition, the consequences of participating in the Life-Extension Program and the prospective benefits from progress in specific areas of research will all have a tangible effect on your vitality and longevity. Next, we will consider these aspects.
SCENARIO 2 - THE EFFECTS OF GENETICS, SOCIAL FACTORS, BEHAVIOUR, AND ENVIRONMENT ON YOUR LIFE-EXPECTANCY.
The following genetic, social, behavioural, and environmental factors are known to relate to your health, to your proneness to specific diseases, and to the length of your life-span. (This aspect of the calculation is taken from Sacher GA 1997; Life Table Modification and Life Prolongation. In: Handbook of The Biology of Aging; [Eds.Finch CE and Hayflick L]; Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1997, pg.582-638.) In answering the questions below, make your notations as you read the material. At the end of this section, you will add and subtract the various factors and make an adjustment to your life-expectancy and number of years remaining. If you cannot answer a particular question, disregard it.
GENETIC FACTORS:
For each grandparent or parent who died of heart attack or stroke before age 50, subtract 2 years; and for any who died from those diseases between the ages of 51-60, subtract 1.								- _____
If any of your predecessors had diabetes, thyroid disorders, or cancer and you are not taking special precautions as advised by a doctor, then subtract 1 year for each disorder.								- _____
SOCIAL AND CULTURAL FACTORS:
If you live in an average industrialized society, make no change. If you live in an advanced technological society, add 2 years to your life-span.								+ _____
If you live in an emerging industrial society, subtract 5 years.								- _____
If you graduated from college, add 1 year.								+ _____
If you income is less than $12,000, subtract 2 years.								- _____
PERSONAL BEHAVIOURAL FACTORS:
If most of your life you have maintained optimal body weight (i.e., you are presently and have been for some time neither over-weight nor under-weight by more than about 5 lbs, add 5 years to your life-expectancy.								+_____
If you are between 12 - 14 lbs. underweight, subtract 1 year; if 15 or more lbs. underweight, subtract 2 years.								-_____
If you are overweight, subtract 1 year for every 10 pounds over your ideal weight.								-_____
If you skip meals frequently, if you do not regularly eat two or three meals per day (including breakfast), and if you eat hurriedly, then subtract 1 year.								-_____
Subtract 1 year for each of the following types of food which you eat routinely:
							fast foods,	-_____
							refined sugar,	-_____
							fatty foods,	-_____
							salty foods.	-_____
If you eat at least one meal a day containing foods from the basic food groups, add 2 years.								+_____
If you take a multiple vitamin and mineral daily or extra vitamin A, C, or E, add 1 year.								+_____
If you eat a high-fiber food daily, add 1 year.								+_____
If you are a moderate drinker of alcohol (i.e. 1 glass of wine or 1 cocktail per day) add 1 year.								+_____
If you drink alcohol more than 2 per day, subtract 2 years for every 2 drinks beyond that.								-_____
If you frequently sleep fewer than 5 hours or more than 9 hours, subtract 2 years.								-_____
If you smoke more than 40 cigarettes per day, subtract 8 years.								-_____
If 20-40 cigarettes per day, subtract 6 years.								-_____
If 10-20 cigarettes per day, subtract 3 years.								-_____
If you do not smoke but live or work with smokers, subtract 2 year.								-_____
If you exercise for half an hour or more at least three times per week, add 2 years (note: only the more strenuous, aerobically sustained, exercising counts such as swimming, hiking, racket ball, jogging, etc.).								+_____
If you are sedentary in work and outside of work, subtract 2 years.								-_____
If you lead a mentally active life, add 1 year.								+_____
If you are often bored and depressed, subtract 1 year.								-_____
If you are basically happy, add 1 year.								+_____
If you are under chronic emotional stress and anxiety, subtract 2 years.								-_____
If you are calm and easy-going, add 1 year.								+_____
If you are highly aggressive, competitive, or easily irritated, subtract 1 year.								-_____
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS:
If you live in a polluted environment, subtract 1 year.								-_____
If you work in a polluted environment, subtract 3 years.								-_____
PERSONAL BIO-MEDICAL FACTORS:
If your blood pressure is 130/90, subtract 1; if it is 140/90, subtract 3; and if it is 150/100 or greater subtract 5.								-_____
If you take therapeutic drugs on a prolonged basis which have known side-effects, subtract 2 years.								-_____
If your blood cholesterol is 220 or more, subtract 1 year.								-_____
If your hdl cholesterol is low, subtract 1 year.								-_____
If you frequently take drugs for recreation purposes, subtract 2.								-_____
If you have annual or semi-annual comprehensive examinations for preventive medicine, add 2.								+_____
SUMMARIZE THE PREVIOUS FIGURES HERE:
The total years added								(2a)+_____
The total years subtracted								(2b)- _____
Next, in order to establish the effects of those personal genetic, social, behavioural, and environmental factors on your life-expectancy, complete the following calculation.
YOUR ADJUSTED LIFE-EXPECTANCY & NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING.
Your ACTUARIAL LIFE-EXPECTANCY from Scenario 1								(1a) _____
Plus the total additions from Scenario 2 (above)								(2a)+_____
Minus the subtractions from Scenario 2 (above)								(2b)- _____
Equals your ADJUSTED LIFE-EXPECTANCY								(2c)=_____
Minus your present age:								(1b)- _____
Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU.								(2d)=_____
SCENARIO 3 - THE LIFE-EXTENSION & CONTROL OF AGEING PROGRAM - PHASE I
Assume that you participate in the Life-Extension Program and that, with reasonable diligence, you do the following within a period of about 3 years:
a) have the routine comprehensive testing at appropriate intervals to identify risk factors and track general health status; and
b) implement the various categories of Phase I Life-Extension Applications (i.e., the procedures in Nutrition, Physical Conditioning, Toxicology, Psychological Factors, and Disease Prevention).
Again, we will assume that it takes a person a good 3 years to implement the basic Phase I applications and, as a consequence of such practice, you are able to normalize or compensate for all of the negative factors in the previous calculation in Scenario 2. (The optimization of personal behaviour, environment, social factors and the compensation for any particular genetic predispositions to disease are the main objectives of Phase I Applications.)
Now, make a modification in your life-expectancy by doing the following calculation. From the last adjusted life-expectancy above (2c), take the total number of years which were subtracted from your life-expectancy, and add those years back to your adjusted life-expectancy.
Your ADJUSTED LIFE-EXPECTANCY from Scenario 2								(2c) _____
Plus the TOTAL SUBTRACTIONS from Scenario 2								(2b)+_____
Equals your PHASE I LIFE-EXPECTANCY:								(3a)=_____
Minus 3 years for implementation:								(3b)-__3__
Minus your present age								(1b)- _____
equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU.								(3c)=_____
Here, we have derived an estimate of a life-expectancy which is reasonably possible with the practices and procedures that are currently available. We believe that this estimate is conservative and that more actually can be achieved in most people. It will require some training, a moderate amount of self-discipline, and an investment of some time and money. However, all of those should be within the reach of most people.
SCENARIOS 4-8 - THE BENEFITS FROM EXPECTED PROGRESS IN LIFE-EXTENSION SCIENCE.
From this point, we will be making stochastic estimates or reasonable conjectures about progress which is likely to occur.
SCENARIO 4 -WITHIN THE NEXT 5 YEARS.
Concurrently with the above Phase I applications, it is reasonable to assume that, within the next 5 years, some progress will have occurred in the life-extension sciences. For example, the technology in Curative Medicine and Disease Prevention by the early detection of disorders and early therapeutic intervention will have improved considerably; and the other Phase I Applications in Nutrition, Exercise, Toxicology, and Stress Management will also have become more refined and more integrated into your life-style. Also, you start taking an anti-inflammatory drug such as aspirin which dramatically lowers the incidence of cancer and heart attack as well as dampening some of the negative side-effects of immune responses. Further, and most important, let us assume that, during this period, you will have been able to ease into a calorically restricted diet, averaging about 1,600 calories per day. Caloric restriction profoundly increases maximum life-span in virtually all experimental models; and there is enough empirical evidence that, if done properly according to each individual's situation, it will work for humans. Caloric restriction is the only technique which, at this time, slows biological ageing. (There is a plausible argument that caloric restriction does not really slow ageing, per se, but rather prevents the life-shortening, chronic diseases such as cancers, atherosclerosis, kidney failure, arthritis, etc. thus allowing the organism to live out its full life-span potential while, at the same time, still ageing. Either way, the health benefits of this technique are profound; and it must become a component in everyone's life-extension program.)
The net result of improvements in Phase I modalities and caloric restriction will have the effect of adding 15 years your life-expectancy. Make the modifications below.
Your PHASE I LIFE-EXPECTANCY from Scenario 3								(3a) _____
Plus 15 years from Scenario #4								(4a)+__15_
Equals your SCENARIO #4 LIFE-EXPECTANCY:								(4b)=_____
Minus 5 years for implementation:								(4c)-__5__
Minus your present age								(1b)-_____
Equals NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU IN 5 YEARS FROM NOW.								(4d)=_____
Calculate to what year you will be surviving:
The present year								_____
Plus the number of years remaining (4d)								_____
Equals, surviving to the year								_____
This, Scenario #4, is very feasible. This is no science fiction. It simply organizes and builds into one's routine life-style procedures which exist today.
SCENARIO 5 - WITHIN THE NEXT 10 YEARS.
Next, concurrently with the above, assume that, in 10 years from the present, progress continues. The previous procedures become more refined. Also, individual hormonal optimization might be routine and provide some marginal health benefits. The chronic diseases will be more preventable and treatable; and individualized nutrition will have developed into a true science. Further, some of the life-extension and gerontological research which began in the 1950's and 1960's will start to surface in the form of applied therapies. For example, a truly effective anti-oxidant compound will have been certified and be available for use, and there will be effective pharmacological management of some aspects of mental ageing. Also, there will be some drugs to protect non-renewable proteins. As a result of that progress, your vitality will be improved such that another 15 years could be added to your life-expectancy. Modify your calculations accordingly:
Your SCENARIO 4 LIFE-EXPECTANCY:								(4b)=_____
Plus 15 years from Scenario 5								(5a)+__15_
Equals SCENARIO 5 LIFE-EXPECTANCY:								(5b)=_____
Minus 10 years for implementation:								(5c)-__10_
Minus your present age								(1b)-_____
Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU IN 10 YEARS FROM NOW.								(5d)=_____
SCENARIO #6 - WITHIN THE NEXT 20 YEARS.
As time progresses, the involvement in and support of ageing research will have grown, and the systematic mapping of the basic mechanisms of regeneration will have yielded major progress. The stage is set for major breakthroughs. Assume that, over the next 20 years, new developments continue. All of the previous techniques continue to become more refined and more effective, yielding additional maintenance of vitality. Also, there will be available rudimentary methods for regeneration, such as: methods to stimulate the synthesis of certain types of proteins which degrade with time. Perhaps, as some investigators believe, it is found that the ageing of certain systems is caused by inhibiting hormones; and agents are developed which block those inhibiting hormones. Also, it may be discovered that there are, in fact, defects in receptor sites to thyroid or insulin and that those defects can be corrected, thus returning general metabolism back to a more optimal state. Those are, of course, speculative; but it is highly probable that within the next 20 years, the ageing processes will be under some control. Such progress will yield additional increments in vitality and extensions in life-expectancy, gaining perhaps another 20 year on life-expectancy. Modify your projections accordingly:
Your SCENARIO 5 LIFE-EXPECTANCY:								(5b)=_____
Plus 20 years from Scenario 6								(6a)+__20_
Equals SCENARIO 6 LIFE-EXPECTANCY:								(6b)=_____
Minus 20 years for implementation:								(6c)-__20_
Minus your present age								(1b)-_____
Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU IN 20 YEARS FROM NOW.								(6d)=_____
By now, the attention of most people starts to waft away. You get the general idea; and besides, the cognitive faculty of mind does not seem to have, normally, the capacity to grasp projections that are much beyond a 5 or 10 year point of future reference. However, to envision where some of the more basic research is going, proceed with the next two scenarios.
SCENARIO #7 - WITHIN THE NEXT 30 YEARS.
In 30 years from now, the life-extension and control of ageing sciences will have developed even further, and we will be on the way to achieving the final breakthroughs. In addition to continued refinements of those areas which have been mentioned previously, we will be able to do more basic biological regeneration. Such techniques as monoclonal antibody production and clonal restoration of stem cells will allow us to augment and/or restore the immune system, thus avoiding a host of associated diseases and biological damage. There will be agents to stabilize the repair of the master genetic molecule, DNA, and to regenerate mitochondria. Another area might be enzymes which eliminate much of the intra-cellular debris (i.e., lipofuscin) and cross-linked proteins which accumulates during normal metabolic processes. Such breakthroughs will significantly stabilize and regenerate vitality and add about 30 additional years to one's life-expectancy.
Your SCENARIO LIFE-EXPECTANCY:								(6b)=_____
Plus 30 years from Scenario 7								(7a)+__30_
Equals SCENARIO 7 LIFE-EXPECTANCY:								(7b)=_____
Minus 30 years for implementation:								(7c)-__30_
Minus your present age								(1b)-_____
Equals THE NUMBER OF YEARS REMAINING TO YOU IN 30 YEARS FROM NOW.								(7D)=_____
SCENARIO #8 - WITHIN THE NEXT 40 YEARS.
Finally, within 40 years, there will be agents that enable the controlled reactivation of cell division (i.e., eumitosis) in those tissues which are depleted. Once that type of technology is accomplished, complete biological regeneration will, most likely, be possible; and we will have the ability to reverse and control ageing and maintain optimal vitality indefinitely through time. For all practical purposes, that will be tantamount to scientific "immortality"; and that is the inevitable thrust of medicine and the ultimate goal of the life-extension sciences. Once this level of technology is reached, then you would be a non-ageing human, functioning in a physical condition of optimal vitality, and your potential would be open-ended. From that point on, only periodic regeneration would be required to biologically maintain you at that level of optimal vitality; and your life-expectancy would be potentially indefinite.
Keep in mind that the last scenarios are speculative and depend on progress in the biological sciences. It could be argued that those predictions are overly optimistic; but it could be argued, with equal validity, that they are too conservative (e.g., we have not even begun to address the prospects of genetic engineering and euthenics). The history of modern science demonstrates very clearly that virtually any problem can be solved and any barrier overcome and that breakthroughs frequently happen much sooner that most people think, including the experts. The rate limiting factor on our progress is mostly the amount and manner of applied resources. While the amount of available resources is always a problem, equally significant are the barriers which are self-imposed by the limits of our aspiration and imagination.